Indian SU-30 MKI and Mirage 2000-H aircrafts intrude into Pakistani airspace

December 14th, 2008 by Saad | Print Indian SU-30 MKI and Mirage 2000-H aircrafts intrude into Pakistani airspace

SU-30 MKI

The following post will provide you different vantage points, in order to allow you to look at this particular event, with the perspective of all parties concerned. I’ll try my best to not to point fingers, instead make a feeble attempt at providing a suitable ‘explanation’ of the above said event. Your comments will then tell me, as to how much of a success my attempt has been, so please, do comment, I’m eagerly looking forward to them.

The event:

  1. At 11:30 am PST [Pakistan Standard Time], 3 Indian Mirage 2000-H fighter jets crossed the line of control, intruding in airspace over Pakistani side of the disputed valley of Kashmir, up until approximately three to four miles before they were intercepted by 2 F16s and 2 Mirage III fighter jets of Pakistan air force.

  2. The second intrusion was recorded at around 12:20 pm PST, when 2 Indian SU-30 MKIs crossed the international border near an eastern city of Pakistan; Lahore. During this instance, they were able to penetrate around 2 miles inside the Pakistani airspace before getting intercepted by 3 F-16s and 3 F7 fighter jets of Pakistan air force.

Given the murkiness surrounding the event, it’s still unknown (thus subject to a future update of this post), if the intruding aircrafts went back on their own upon registering PAF fighters on their radars, or were hailed by PAF fighters and got escorted out of Pakistani air space.

What does the political regime in India set to gain from such an operation?

From what I’ve read and seen, I believe the current regime in India tried to score two goals by launching such an operation.

  1. The overwhelming domestic pressure inside India is forcing their government’s hand and pushing it toward taking unilateral military action against Pakistan-based militants. That said, it’s doesn’t need a rocket scientist to realize that any war or a mass scale conflict with Pakistan will worsen the security situation for India and in the broader region (read Allied forces residing in Afghanistan). Thus, in their attempt at striking a balance between the need to act and the need to exercise caution, New Delhi likely ordered the incursions as a means to sustain the pressure on Pakistan in order to make it continue its crackdown on militants, without really escalating the situation beyond the point of no return.

  2. British Prime Minister was set to visit Pakistan and India, on Sunday morning i.e. December 14th, 2008. It was an excellent time to drive the point home (specially to the western intermediaries), that India is serious in achieving its targets inside Pakistan this time around. And what better way could there have been but by sounding alarms for an impending surgical aerial strike inside Pakistan.

What does the Indian air force set to gain from such an operation?

This is certainly not the first time that Indian air force has sent its aircrafts over Pakistani territory in order to conduct ELINT (electronic intelligence) and RECCE (reconnaissance) operations. Throughout the 80s, 90s and much of early 2000s – IAF has been sending routine sorties of their MiG-25 FOXBAT fighter jet over Lahore, Islamabad and Azad Kashmir with relative impunity, considering the fact that Pakistan air force or the army have no weapon in their arsenal capable of countering an aircraft flying at MACH 3 at a height of a hundred thousand feet. But ever since its retirement in 2006, they have relied on their CARTOSAT/OCEANSAT/IRS series of satellites for visual surveillance of India’s neighborhood. While, satellites did give them a better surveillance capability, they do not allow them to record signatures for newer radar or SAM systems being incorporated by their neighbours (a much useful feature on the FOXBATs).

Therefore, if IAF are to in fact prepare to launch surgical strikes inside Pakistani territory – they will first need the following information:

  1. The level of PAF’s preparedness and sortie generation speed.

  2. Recording TPS-77 , YLC-2 and YLC-6’s radar signatures (if they did in fact go live, during the intercept). Why? Because, these three are the newest radar systems acquired by PAF and thus their radar signatures are hitherto unknown to the Indians.

  3. Check for any new fixed / mobile SAM (Surface to Air missiles) batteries which radars lit up, during their flight over Pakistani territory.

It should, therefore not come as a surprise that it were two of India’s finest birds (with Russian and Israeli EW [electronic warfare] equipment) that took to the sky for this particular mission.

Reaction of Government of Pakistan

Well, we’ve a joke of an information minister; Sherry Rehman, trying to drive across a point that doesn’t make sense to even a slightly thinking mind. There is always a span of 15 to 20 km on either side of a border that is considered a no fly zone (for military aircrafts). This span is utilized for reactionary purposes so as to allow reaction through aerial interception and engagement which requires 3 to 5 minutes in times of dire need. How can then two of the finest birds in Indian air force’s inventory make the same mistake (of entering Pakistani airspace while making a turn – as per explained by the President of Pakistan; Asif Ali Zardari), at two different occasions, at two different points over Pakistani territory on the same day? Keep in mind that we are not talking about a single fighter jet in here, but complete sorties of 3 Mirage 2000-H and 2 SU-30 MKI aircrafts.

Does the explanation, put forward by the Government of Pakistan, make any sense to you now?

From where I see it and having a slight agreement with, Pakistani politicians do not want to get cornered and start a war (of any scale) with India. And are thus bending over backwards in order to appease them, even if it takes them to make illogical and irrational explanations describing some very visible signs of Indian belligerence. Another reason for doing this, is to keep the emotions of people of Pakistan in check. What I don’t know, is that how far their attempts will go?

Why? Because this is not the 80s anymore, information spreads like jungle-fire courtesy Pakistan’s private media outlets and more importantly, Pakistani military services do not seem to be in a mood to put up with such behaviour. What strengthens my belief is the fact that the news about PAF intercepting Indian fighters was leaked to the private media through PAF sources, after almost 12 hours of the said event. It didn’t come from the government of Pakistan.

What did PAF gain from the intercept?

One word; confidence. To be able to intercept enemy fighter jets within 2 – 5 miles of Pakistani airspace (that is equivalent of flight time of around 15 seconds for a jet fighter), suggests that they were not only ready for such a move on part of IAF but also on their toes, keeping a look out for it. While numerically and qualitatively, PAF jets are far inferior to what the Indians can put up in the air, the fact that they got air borne and reached the target area within such a short period of time, suggests that it was a job well done.

Conclusion:

I believe there will be more instances of IAF aircrafts intruding in to Pakistani air space, over the course of next few days and weeks. What I am however, more interested in seeing is the response of PAF and that of the government of Pakistan. Will the government allow active intercept and neutralising of the threat? And in case of a surgical strike by IAF, how much of a free-hand will PAF get at giving a reply to the Indians?

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This entry was posted on Sunday, December 14th, 2008 at 9:12 pm and is filed under Military, Politics. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.
  • Amna
    Great work Saad, keep it up.
  • amjad
    How about the Phalcons? Phased array or rotating radome? What are its capabilities? They're also getting Embraer-based phased array AWACS. How well integrated will all these systems be?
    How good are all this hardware in the missile & nukes age?
  • Saad
    Indian phalcons will feature a phased array radar in a top mounted dome. As far as their indigenous AWACs (involving Embrar aircrafts) program is concerned, I'm not well versed in its details.

    As to how well integrated this system will be, that's a pretty tough question to answer since I do not have first hand access to either their systems or such information. But if Israeli technology and their work is anything to go by, I'm guessing that they'll do a good job at integrating the two assets into a common information stream.

    Do note, that missiles and nukes have been around for nearly 5 decades now, but that hasn't deterred countries with non-conventional weapons to entirely give up on their conventional weapons programs. That is because such hardware and conventional forces in general are responsible for increasing the threshold of a country, in terms of use of nuclear weapons. The better the conventional forces, the less need there is for a country to use non-conventional weapons. And thus these weapons are useful in their own regard.
  • amjad
    Bhaiyyas: Is it true that the Indian Brahmos supersonic craft can actually engage in dogfights in unmanned mode through remote control?
  • Saad
    Nope, that is not true.
  • Zob
    well i just stumbled onto this thread and enjoyed it thoroughly. however, certain things that i think i should clear.firstly during the kargil operation PAF did not have any Beyond Visual Range(BVR) air to air missiles.this meant we couldnot lock onto the escort fighters of the strike package of the IAF.So our pilots just flew Combat Air Petrol(CAP)over Pak territory.So it is not about PAF slow response during kargil poerations but it is all about disengaging the enemy when u hear the Lock on noise of the enemies A2A missile. As for the radar signature raging arguments well i am a rookie so can't say much..but from my point of view the whole aim of this violation was to see our reaction time. and the time and distance stated means 2 things firstly that our fighter were already performing CAP's and that our radars were tracking the enemy targets from within the indian border and could easily calculate the type of aircraft and distance and vector. so i don't presume we would have switched on our SAM's for such targets. further if our AD was tracking the hostile target we would have known that it was not a Strike Package and we would have not started painting the enemy warplanes. please correct me if i am wrong.
  • JZ
    sorry about the small mistakes. I didn't review it or fix errors since I was very sleepy after a long new year night.
  • Saad
    My assertion was that they were not armed with A-G missiles as opposed to what's being said in some sections of the press, not that they didn’t have A-A missiles on them. As for them intruding in to Pakistani airspace, I believe there are three points that need to be considered.

    a. Even during Afghan war, PAF didn't perform a hot intercept until the Soviet aircrafts were at least 7 kilometers inside our boundary (part of ROE), keeping in mind the fact that if shot down, the wreckage of enemy aircraft should fall within Pakistani territory. You don't just drop an enemy aircraft as soon as it enters your territory, until and unless it poses a viable threat or you’re in a state of declared war. Indians might have done that with an unarmed PN Atlantique, but I've yet to see PAF ever acting in such a belligerent manner, in any of the wars or skirmishes that they've been a part of.

    b. If the intention behind the intrusion was to in fact attack land based targets. Why did they stop? And why do you believe Indians sent in only a couple of SU-30s or 3 Mirage 2000-H fighters, flying in at different locations and time? And I'm sure that IAF was aware of PAF presence in the area, given their intelligence gathering set-up on the ground, in Pakistan. And they must have factored it in.

    c. While Mirage 2000-H aircrafts in Indian inventory are geared towards performing SEAD and A-G roles, SU-30MKIs are primarily meant for establishing air-superiority. Again, if the intention was to attack, then they should’ve been flying top-cover for Mirage fighters. That was not the case.

    Coming to SAMS, I don’t believe that Pakistan has that many ‘fixed’ SAM units, except for a lone well advertised SA-2 site just outside Rawalpindi, most of them are mobile.

    And with all due respect, the idea that radar signature (which can frequency hop or angle track) can be captured and deciphered as soon as a radar is turned on is a tad farfetched and there is a reason why ECCM exist. It takes a certain fixed amount of signals, following the concept of packet sniffing, processing which can give you such intricate details about a particular radar system. And if the force using such systems knows anything about EW, they’ll neither keep the radar on the air, long enough to actually give up such data nor indulge in the luxury of live testing and calibration. That is while keeping in mind the fundamental rule of electronic warfare, to not to light up radars outside actual combat situations.

    You should also note that there is a difference between finding a target and actually acquiring, targeting and feeding target parameters to the fire control radars associated with the SAM and AAA systems in use. It’s the latter three that actually involve the radars actually lighting up.

    And please, feel free to invite in people, whom you reckon are good at the subject, for I’d like to learn more about it.

    As for the Arab-Israeli conflict, are you sure that you’re not mixing up the 1973 war with the war fought in 1967? If not, would you mind telling me as to exactly how many SAM sites did any of the Arab countries have, during the 1967 conflict? From what I know and have read, EW in 1967 war was limited to jamming radio communications. And that is an entirely different field of study.

    And if you were referring to the war of attrition and the 1973 Arab-Israel war, then you should know that the state of Israel lost over 22 and 40 aircrafts respectively in these conflicts, precisely due to a lack of SAM-suppression doctrine and preparation.

    Now, studying the 1982 Bekaa valley conflict, should give you a lot of information on how IDF/AF was able to completely annihilate Syrian SAM cover and radar sites. They had conducted extensive aerial reconnaissance of the Bekaa valley for an entire year and did training missions in the Negev desert raiding mock SAM sites similar to those in Lebanon.

    Similar information can be found, if you’re to study preparation on part of allied forces to take on Iraqi air defense. They had employed several ELINT assets in the arena, during the build up to operation Desert Shield with the main purpose of mapping out Iraqi EOoB i.e. deployment, composition of Iraqi AD batteries, support radar systems and mapping out command and control stations and frequencies used by them to communicate. Such is the preparation, when you’re to prepare for SEAD missions.

    And guess what else did they do? They performed the oldest trick in the book of electronic warfare in the period preceding actual hostilities; they staged multiple penetrations of Iraqi airspace, forcing the Iraqis to light up their radars in order to engage inbound bogies thus giving up the identity and position of their radars and AD formations. Does it sound similar to what happened here? To me it does.

    And please, I know what HARM is all about, the reason I mentioned it in my previous reply. But the fact remains that India, if it attacked Pakistan, will not indulge in destroying our SAM batteries for that will amount to going to war with Pakistan. Given Indian political objectives and their will to conduct ‘surgical strikes’, what they will instead target for is actually jamming our ground based aerial defense assets.

    And such violations did in fact help Indians and do mind that radar signatures are in fact kept in databases. Try looking up the term DRFM and see if it’s of any help. =)

    And let’s not jump the gun here, the only thing that I pointed out was you were repeating certain points that I’ve already made in my post so I couldn’t really make out their purpose. Feel free to further indulge me in this discussion for it’s heartily entertaining and educating.
  • JZ
    Good work Saad,

    I do have a couple of disagreements and may be this is lack of knowledge on my end.

    When a radar performs search or tracking, it sends out a beam of energy in the form of a radio frequency (or the mathematical algorithm that you mentioned so to speak), now, this energy hits a moving object (a plane) and returns the location at which it was stopped due to hitting an object ( a plane) in the air. The resulting frequency waves create a blip or the mark on the screen, identifying the location where the object was detected and how much frequency was blocked(Radar Cross Section or the RCS).

    When a radar is put into Lahore anywhere in Lahore or even close to Gujranwala cant), and we are talking about LM's TPS-77 system with approximately 287/5 mile coverage (NM to M conversion),or the YLC-2 (a 3 D radar with similar range) or the YLC-6 ( a 2 D mobile radar) with approx 150 KM range... the same signal or the signature can be captured from sitting almost 200 KM's. Meaning, depending on the location of the radar, the signal can be easily tracked 50 miles into the Indian territory to say the least.

    Now, why would they want to send their top of the line jets across the Pakistan's national air space when they could have captured the signature of the radar from miles away?

    The answer can be found in some of the other points that you are making:

    1: The main point. To check PAF's readiness and to see what will be sent to counter their top fighters and how long before interception and the nature of the alert that the PAF was in. Once they know the method of formation. It won't be difficult for them to know how to keep PAF busy with their top of the line jets while the Jag's, Harriers, Mig 27's and Mig 23's etc, can do the dirty work (if need be, although, if an air war like this happens, I don't even want to think about where it will lead the region and I just hope and pray that stupid common sense prevails).

    2: The goal was to kill many birds with one stone. Now, by violating the air space, specially the same day as the BPM was arriving, they had made it clear that they don't give a $$$$ about any third country with whatever status, who is trying to mediate between India and Pak. Essentially, projecting power and the military 'might', and that they mean business and that they are ready for it. As soon as you add fear to any situation, the results are usually amazing. Here, it means a lot more pressure on Pakistan from the Britt's and from my fellow Americans since they know that India is a big power and they can, if they choose to, attack Pak and neglect anyone, AS THEY DID WITH THE VIOLATIONS. Now, this is a powerful signal going throughout the world...

    3: This was to prove to their internal crowd also that they are taking steps towards a confrontation and to forcefully make Pakistan accept their conditions. And that the Indian military is ready to attack the aggressor.

    4: International media: Always remember and I hope Pakistan catches up on it eventually since they haven't in 60 some years. The first offense always gets publicized. Each step that's connected to the first one, will just aid the initiator's first step due to the media hype. Here, the 'violation' news put India on headlines in the whole world. Adding Pakistani ministers remarks and then adding Indian remarks...we all know PAF was ready etc, etc, but the end, the result in the eyes of the world was..that India was ready to attack and that India has the means and the courage and the technology too...thus adding more to the fear that would put more pressure on Pakistan and scared the West since they have made trillions of dollars worth of investments in India.

    Honestly, why can't Pakistanis just get more educated and beat India in business and technology? Look at Israel, they have become an innovator (no aid issues please), India used to be poor, their people learned software development and look where they stand, why can't Pakistani government setup a direction for its people? I can guarantee you, the Americans and the west would be willing to help a lot if the government for once creates a skilled labor. This helps everyone.

    Bottom line, Pakistan needs more education, infrastructure and moderation so that foreign investors can invest in the country. And with ONLY a strong economy, you can sit down on the table with others on equal basis. As long as a country lives off aid or loans, you will always be the guy getting blamed for the issues. It's the reality. I wish the government can take steps towards education, institutions and economy and for God's sake, the assemblies and the parliament should have a large majority of lawyers and highly educated people in there, instead of the 5th generation of the old man who was owned half the province somewhere..... young educated people need to come forth soon to turn Pakistan into a modern society. Look at Malaysia or Indonesia or Turkey....are Pakistanis more Muslim than them? I doubt that. They just have a better economy, better religious tolerance and more educated people who are steering their country well into the 21st century.
  • Saad
    Thank you for making some excellent suggestions pertaining to what 'really' is keeping us from becoming a progressive state.

    That said, I'd like to just clarify the bit of my post that you questioned.

    [quote]Meaning, depending on the location of the radar, the signal can be easily tracked 50 miles into the Indian territory to say the least.
    Now, why would they want to send their top of the line jets across the Pakistan’s national air space when they could have captured the signature of the radar from miles away?[unquote]

    That is true but then again, I do not expect radars accompanying SAMs or some of the more sophisticated military radars to be operational at all times. They're usually switched off, precisely to keep the enemy from listening on to them. Some of these radars are only turned on, when an adversary actually penetrates a country's sovereign airspace.

    Take a look at the following document, and see if it helps you understand what I'm saying, in a better way.

    http://www.fas.org/irp/doddir/dod/jp3-13-1.pdf
  • JZ
    I understand. That's a valid point but just to add more to it, the air defense around Lahore is probably the strongest besides the Capital and the key installations. Reason for that is, 1: It is within 45 minutes drive from India and 2: Due to it being a hub and a major war zone in 1965, the Pak military do not wish to take a chance and thus the long range radars installed in Lahore so that early warning can be archived by deep view of the Indian territory.

    Now what that also means is, that AD will be alerted as soon as the Indian air craft are id's flying towards the border. The radars will be switched off (SAM ones), but, as soon as the jets get into the defined buffer zone (usually within 25 miles of the border with high speed and n change in vector), the SAM radar's start to paint the target. Reason for that is, at this point, and the jets speed, its a matter of may be seconds or a minute and the army's air defense network has to be ready, separately or in conjunction with the air force for interception. Because these days, the AGM's can be launched within 30 miles...so you don't want to take a chance if that makes any sense. Keep in mind that the SAM's radar may have a lock on target acquisition range of 20 miles but the Radio frequency is a free medium and it will travel in weak strengths to 3* as much distance when it will become extremely weak to recognize. Militarizes use X and S bads for SAM's, I think YLC are S bands and TPS is an L band radar.

    So, long story short, due to the small depth and almost one minute from crossing the border and being in the middle of Lahore light's up fire under ADF's butt from 30 miles away so to avoid the air craft getting any closer to the city and thus, the SAM's are activated from the distance that is determined by the military based on known Indian air to ground missiles that they can fire from X miles away. Let me know if this makes sense.
  • Saad
    YLC-2 and TPS-77 are L-band radars while YLC-6 is an S-band radar.

    Also, I believe that AD will not go 'hot', unless it sees a credible threat. They do realize that as soon as they will start painting the enemy aircraft, they'll give up their location and in turn make themselves a tangible target for enemy HARMs.

    This is why I believe IAF air crafts took their chances, at entering Pakistani air space, so as to let the AD forces, perceive them as a credible threat and light up their radars.
  • JZ
    Thanks Saad, my responses start with **** below ****

    "YLC-2 and TPS-77 are L-band radars while YLC-6 is an S-band radar."


    **** Yea, I didn't remember the band configuration but they had to be L or S. But that doesn't apply to the situation here ****

    Also, I believe that AD will not go ‘hot’, unless it sees a credible threat. They do realize that as soon as they will start painting the enemy aircraft, they’ll give up their location and in turn make themselves a tangible target for enemy HARMs.

    **** I disagree. If the PAF was so ready that it intercepted the Indian AC within 4 KM...meaning barely less than 16 seconds of being in the Paki air space...you can only imagine how 'REAL' the threat was. Those planes were armed to teeth and if they had seen a slow response like Kargil, you bet that they would've bombed something. I guarantee you that. There was a plan A, B, C and D behind these violations. A was, if PAF did slow interception like Kargil, 'go hit something, it doesn't matter what it is, but destroy something in Pakistan if not the real camps'. The plan B,C and D's are explained above in my post."

    This wasn't a peacetime violation....this was a violation after the open threats of attacks on Pakistan, made known to everyone and their dog....so, the ADF had to be active. If you see the satellite imagery, as soon as you cross in Lahore from Wahga, within two KM, there is a small jungle type area with heavy Pak military camouflage presence....4 KM means that they could've dropped gifts for the military personnel.. thus, I think EVERYTHING was active when they crossed the buffer zone. It had to be, both the military are standing by on Red alert or war like situation. ****
  • JZ
    I as not disagreeing with your points precisely besides the one, that the mission was to capture the signatures since people in aviation industry know how easy that it.

    As far as the issue of the air crafts being armed or not...well, if the orders were given (like in 1999 or the previous wars), the SU-30's or the Mirages would be shot against by the PAF right? and they would fire back may be? so, they risked almost 100 million dollars worth of planes for a 'friendly' visit to Pak air space that could've started a full war may be... :)? really? they had to be armed to teeth bro or there isn't any point. They weren't quiet sitting on the 'friendly' train to Pak, they were 'violating' international borders and Pakistan's sovereign air space...so they better be armed since the Indian air force was ready to attack at that time.

    Usually, being so close to the border, the other side puts a small Transmit - Receiving module or TRM that works 24*7 to capture SIGINT...so the 'SAM' radar that they were going to 'capture', didn't require a mission per say since they had to be turned on at some point for verification when they were installed or tested, (otherwise no use in putting it there if you can't evaluate it in the real area that it is going to serve in)...and as soon as they did turn it on, the Signal would've been captured.... the critical points of this misadventure were mentioned in both of our assessment before. The only thing is, that, the mission was not to capture the signals.

    I am hesitant to invite more people here who have "been there and done that" since it will reflect your analysis to be flawed but I know you did some awesome work here. So, I am going to end it at that.

    An example is, the 6 day war between Israel and the Arabs. If you think Israel had been violating their air space for months before (so many countries with so many air ports, SAM sites, Radars etc), to get the signatures...you are wrong. They captured it just like that, by small T-R modules using SIGINT platform...and real time as they were flying in the war zone.
    Heck, even the current SIGINT equipment can track the passive radars miles away.

    An example is AGM 154 HARM, as soon as a target (radar) is detected with RF frequency being omitted (the missile doesn't even need to 'already' know the Signature), it locks onto it and once fired, even if the radar was immediately turned off, it will still hit it as long as the radar was still at the same location and not moved to miles away in mere seconds.

    Now, consider this: A strike package in real war, with 4 SU-30's as cover (usually there will be more but let's take an example) and 4 Jag's and 4 Mig 27's as the strike package....what good it will do to the Indians, if they 'already' knew the Signature through this violation?

    As soon as the cover package would start to get painted, the cover air craft would immediately fire the anti radiation missile while the strike air craft may be 10 miles behind...thus taking out the radar and the SAM battery before it can do anything or may be take out one cover jet...so I don't see a point in 'saving' the signature of the radar. I mean, it's not a souvenir to keep in your database and remember...it will be attacked against as soon as it is detected. I have yet to see a HARM missile from any country that likes to kill one radar vs. the other and that has a better kill ratio for 'saved' radar signals :)

    I am not going to post more here as we are now getting into an egoistic argument and that's one thing that I do not like, both in Indian folks and the Pakistanis. You guys get your ego's hurt extremely fast. I am just trying to add further input to your valuable work. Your article had great information but there were a couple of points that I wanted to may be touch base on and I really appreciate your knowledge. So, if you think my input is valid, in the future, just use it in your analysis. We all learn something new everyday.
  • Saad
    The only report about these planes being armed was put up by BBC Urdu, rest of Pakistani press copied it off from there. Considering the dubious history of their claims in the past, I'm still not sold on the idea, that these planes made an armed incursion in to Pakistani airspace.

    I don't see any of your other points disagreeing with what I've stated in my post.
  • sameek
    Dear Bro

    I find all posts are very much patriotic, but patriotism should be done or shown with some brain and foresightedness otheriwse Dooms Day is inevitable. Shooting down to Indian fighter jets and making the debris fall in your land will only escalate war and not only a war it will be a WAR BIG one. Everbody now a days are glued to the TV for the updates of Indo Pak relationships and the outcomes u have seen already. Most of the international friends of Pak are saying that their intelligence is also giving proofs that the non state actors are basically from Pak, that means they r also cornering Pak.

    So never try to do anything in haste, u all will be no where.
  • Brilliant and very informative.

    You have me hooked.
  • Wohoo! 3 cheers for the Pakistan Air Force!
  • Jimmy Jasmshed
    I read some excellent PAF quotes by International observers. Good for knowing and letting others know about it:

    http://luscious69.blogspot.com/
  • An_igma
    Thoroughly impressive. Wasn’t expecting anything less than that from you. Keep them coming.

    Regards
  • fatema
    well i am happy that Pakistan is at least ready for the surprise.....btw well written
  • Assalamu Alaikum.

    Very nicely overviewed...

    @ Sameek,
    Remember brother, the Pak. Army does not depend on the fluctuating economic conditions... it 's basis is on "eeman" (faith) and "junoon" "lagan" (passion and devotion), something which, Alhamdulillah, our Armymen ALWAYS have and exactly what the Indian counterparts lack... to quite an extent...

    May Allah Help Us :)
  • farrah k raja
    PAF ...Thankyou for doing your job ,it means we can sleep peacefully and feel safe.
    You are not alone we are with you!!
  • Faisal
    Very informative indeed. Well researched.
    As far as capability to shoot down indians, i am pretty sure that our F16s can do that as i recall even back in 99 in AK SECTOR, THEY ALWAYS LOCKED DOWN ON TO THEM BUT WERE HELD BACK. The reason was that debris would ve fallen on indians side, giving them lame excuses. Indian fear penetrating more than couple of miles for the same reason.
    Bottom line=whether they possess su 35 or what ever, guts will be missing forever.
    Thanks for making me read your article. Keep sharing such work.
  • Harry
    Acc to a article by Chief of PAF, they had only 1 type of aircraft suitable for CAP missions(F-16) even F-16 sorties too were "rationalized" due to lack of spares toward the end of the conflict. The article also states that there were Indian intrusions in Pakistani airspace throughout the 99conflict upto depth of 13k.
    as far as guts are concerned, what would you say about the fact that PAF did not shoot down intruders in both instences and i'm sure we all remember what Indians did to Atlantique when it intruded Indian airspace. . Its not always about guts, Brain always prevails over Barn.
  • Harry
    Good job Saad. your analysis was great. . keep it up
  • Aman
    Great work by PAF , we are always proud on our security forces except police :D , they have really done a great job,yes we should stop wars too , but this can not be done by our side only , first of all our politicians just keep there mouth shut and let army handle the situation , because yesterday it was second idiotic information provided to the nation by information ministry . Please stop making idiotic moves this is the time to do some thing very seriously.
  • Yasar
    Great work Saad, keep it up. You said PAF acquired three latest radars, are these new radars are capable to detect drone?
  • Saad
    Yes, they very much can.
  • Then why our Defence Minister always criminally claims that we dont have anything to detect those attacks?
  • Saad
    Read my reply to amMar (just a few posts up), in order to understand why the minister lies.
  • ejaz
    its time for the both parties to cool down and respect the territorial boundary of each in true spirit. war is never a solution to any problem rather it adds to miseries.Both countries need to care for health & education of millions.
  • Zara
    I didn't know IAf's been doing that in past years. Quite in depth examination, no wonder this made your bp shot to over 140. =P

    A very good analysis, understandable enough for a common mind.
  • What do you mean by signature here;

    *While, satellites did give them a better surveillance capability, they do not allow them to record signatures for newer radar or SAM systems being incorporated by their neighbours*

    great post, 2 thumbs up!

    But i wonder whr PAF goes during drone attacks :P
  • Saad
    In layman terms, every radar follows a specific mathematical pattern (signature) when tracking airborne targets. Once that certain pattern gets compromised, it can then be used by enemy electronic warfare systems to either jam or overwhelm it with false information, so as to render it useless.

    As for the PAF bit, they’re only acting under the directions of the army and government. The chain of the events starts with PA and ISI’s intelligence sources at the ground, to the very people who are commanding those drones. PA (Pakistan Army), even has access to live video during many of these drone strikes.

    Source: http://blog.wired.com/defense/2008/11/in-a-pres...
  • Ahmed Chowdhry
    Shoot down one of them like we did in the Kargil war and they will learn their lesson.
  • Excellent work!

    They deserve much better treatment!
  • Great work...

    Doesn't India have SU-35s.

    Plus I have seen Mig-29s parked at based near Pakistan through Google Earth. I am surprised why they were not used if the intention was to test the defenses.
  • Necro
    Mig-29 are primarily for air defence / interception. For deep interdiction IAF can use Mirage-2000, Su-30 and Jaguar.

    Well Done Saad
  • Saad
    SU-30MKI is a close cousin of SU-35 but no, Indians do not have SU-35.
  • Farzal
    is it correct 2 IAF aircraft were shot down during the Kargil (war/conflict) ?
  • Saad
    Yes, a MiG 21 and a MiG 27 were shot down by Pakistan Army personnel using MANPADs.
  • kaRadi
    That is not entirely correct.

    The MIG 27 developed engine failure and the pilot eject. Later captured by Pak Army and sent to India after the conflict.

    The Mig 21 was sent immediately to do recon on the plane that went down but was shot down by Manpad/s. The pilot was killed.

    I guess all of us on this forum will only believe what we can hear. The truth will always remain illusive to all.
  • Ali
    PAF will retaliate, orders have been given to shoot down any such intrusions in the future :). And im not just babbling.
  • Imran
    we shudve lit up those 2 aircraft with missiles, they wudve crashed in our territory, evidence that they had evil intentions...
  • Jawairia
    Brilliant Work Saaad......
  • Fabulous! A great analysis indeed. =)
  • What really makes me angry is why Sharry baji so keen to showcase this incident as a mistake on IAF's part when India itself is denying the intrusion.
  • Aman
    because she is chay-ri
  • A brillinat analysis - link back should be coming down very soon
  • I guess I'll just come to your blog then to get all the info, eh?

    On a serious note, I agree with your assessment of the events, although imo this has very little to do with sending Pakistan a message and everything to do with domestic and international posturing by India.

    I wouldn't shoot any plane down, especially if it returned back home of it's own accord. Shooting first especially at our current disadvantaged state is suicidal.
  • Amjad
    Absolutely. We are in big soup of our own making
  • Nice detailed analysis
  • Fantastic analysis. Keep up the great work!
  • I bet the IAF may 'mistakenly' drop some stuff over Pakistan's territory some day.

    What we need is to shoot down the intruders at sight without warning to show that we are just capable of doing that.
  • sameek
    Please never think of that since it can escalate full length war and Pak will not be able to withstand it due to its economic condition
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